Understand the Aurora Forecast is not something that should scare you, to keep it simple: The Geomagnetic Activity Index (which is related to the Aurora Strength) go from 0 to 9.
Below you can find the actual forecasts from NOAA. This is the short term Forecast and completely dynamically, the Northern Lights (or Aurora Borealis) strength is measured on this values, higher the value higher is the strength of the Activity.
In 4 minutes: K-index = 1
In 19 minutes: K-index = 1
The chart below will show you the K-index for the past 7 days:
Higher the value, higher is your change to see the Aurora and the intensity of it. If you are at High Latitude the K-index 1 or 2 which means quiet Activity but WITH Activity and would allow you to see the lights, maybe faint but they will be there.
If you ware not fortunate to live in the Aurora Zone, don’t be sad, there is hope. From Ireland and England to see the Aurora Borealis we need a KP above 6.
Look at the images below and the lines, if you are not at high latitude you will need a higher K-Index to be able to see the Tricky Lady.
The next image is the Ovation (source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/)
It will show us a estimate from where it’s possible to see the Aurora Borealis at the moment, you will notice a red line towards the south, this line will indicate that we could see something from that location (provided the weather permits)